经济系统物质流分析研究述评

作为研究经济系统物质代谢的重要方法,经济系统物质流分析方法近年来在资源与环境管理领域得到了广泛的应用,理论发展非常迅速。对经济系统物质流分析进行了系统综述,以期为更深入的理论研究提供参考。系统回顾了经济系统物质流分析的发展历史,介绍了其核算框架和指标体系。重点对经济系统物质流分析的研究现状进行了总结和述评,研究表明:(1)在经济系统物质流分析指标的核算研究方面:国家层面的核算研究多、方法较为成熟,而区域层面的核算研究尚未形成成熟的核算框架;针对直接流指标的核算研究多,而包含间接流或隐藏流的综合指标的核算方法研究不足;(2)在经济系统物质流分析指标的变化原因研究方面,目前的研究较少,研究方法包括分解分析法和回归分析法:前者多基于IPAT方程的直接分解法,难以考察经济系统内部的结构和技术的变化对经济系统物质流分析指标的影响,而后者则在所识别的经济系统物质流分析指标的影响因素方面具有较大差异。提出了经济系统物质流分析的未来研究方向。

A critical review of economy-wide material flow analysis

Economy-wide material flow analysis (EW-MFA) and relevant indicators have been designed to monitor material flows at the macroeconomic level and to provide indicators that could contribute to the management of resource use and output emission flows from economic, environmental, and broader sustainability perspectives. Recently, EW-MFA has been rapidly developed in theoretical research and widely used as an important tool in resource and environment management. A systematic review of the theoretical research on EW-MFA is performed in this study, and this review is expected to serve as a reference for future theoretical research on EW-MFA. First, a brief outline of the historical development of EW-MFA over the past 50 years is presented, the accounting framework and indicator systems of EW-MFA are introduced, and the pros and cons of EW-MFA indicator aggregation are discussed. Second, the state-of-the-art of EW-MFA is summarized and discussed as a key component in the accounting of EW-MFA indicators as well as the driving forces and dynamics of EW-MFA indicators. The following two issues were observed: (1) In the accounting of EW-MFA indicators, research work has fully matured at the national level because there is a standardized accounting framework and database, while research work is far from mature at the regional level, including the provincial level and city level, because no unified accounting framework exists. In addition, previous research has mainly focused on direct flow indicators, such as direct material input and domestic material consumption, while not sufficiently focusing on comprehensive indicators, which aggregate direct flow indicators with indirect flow indicators and hidden flow indicators, such as the raw material consumption (RMC) and total material requirement. (2) Fewer studies have examined the driving force and dynamics of EW-MFA indicators than those that have examined the accounting of EW-MFA indicators, and the research methods can be divided into decomposition analysis and regression analysis. For the decomposition analysis of EW-MFA indicators, the IPAT equation, index decomposition analysis (IDA), and structure decomposition analysis (SDA) are employed. The IPAT equation is the most commonly used method for analyzing the driving force of EW-MFA indicators; however, this equation can hardly reveal the effect of economic structure and technology in the economic system on EW-MFA indicators. IDA and SDA can overcome this deficiency; however, thus far, there have been few such studies. For the regression analysis of EW-MFA indicators, no consistent conclusions concerning which factors are the driving forces of EW-MFA indicators have been drawn, although some factors have been frequently suggested as affecting resource productivity, such as income level and population density. Finally, we propose the directions for future research by summarizing the shortcomings of the current research on EW-MFA with respect to the following goals: (1) disaggregating EW-MFA data to economic sectors; (2) promoting research on accounting for comprehensive indicators of EW-MFA, especially for RMC; (3) developing an accounting framework of EW-MFA on the regional level; and (4) stimulating research on the driving forces and dynamics of EW-MFA indicators.