Impact of Travel Between Patches for Spatial Spread of Disease |
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Authors: | Ying-Hen Hsieh P van den Driessche Lin Wang |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Applied Mathematics, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan, R.O.C.;(2) Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada |
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Abstract: | A multipatch model is proposed to study the impact of travel on the spatial spread of disease between patches with different
level of disease prevalence. The basic reproduction number for the ith patch in isolation is obtained along with the basic reproduction number of the system of patches, ℜ0. Inequalities describing the relationship between these numbers are also given. For a two-patch model with one high prevalence
patch and one low prevalence patch, results pertaining to the dependence of ℜ0 on the travel rates between the two patches are obtained. For parameter values relevant for influenza, these results show
that, while banning travel of infectives from the low to the high prevalence patch always contributes to disease control,
banning travel of symptomatic travelers only from the high to the low prevalence patch could adversely affect the containment
of the outbreak under certain ranges of parameter values. Moreover, banning all travel of infected individuals from the high
to the low prevalence patch could result in the low prevalence patch becoming diseasefree, while the high prevalence patch
becomes even more disease-prevalent, with the resulting number of infectives in this patch alone exceeding the combined number
of infectives in both patches without border control. Under the set of parameter values used, our results demonstrate that
if border control is properly implemented, then it could contribute to stopping the spatial spread of disease between patches. |
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Keywords: | Basic reproduction number Border control Influenza Multipatch model Spatial spread Travel rate |
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