The Value of a hoard: not just energy

We present a stochastic dynamic programming model of the contributionof stored food to winter survival. Using the acorn woodpecker(Melanerpes formtcivorus) as a model organism, we demonstratethat a hoard of small energetic value can impart considerableimprovement in the probability of surviving the winter and soimprove fitness. With this model we hope to resolve Koenig andMumme's paradox, that acorn woodpeckers expend much time andeffort to create and maintain hoards of acorns which provideno more that 16% of their energetic needs over the period inwhich they are used. We further demonstrate that the contributionof hoarded acorns to survival depends on the variability inforaging outcome, independently of the energetic value of thehoard in absolute terms. We point out that the results applyin principle to all hoarding animals and suggest a number offurther elaborations of the model.