京津冀地区城市化与生态环境交互耦合关系定量测度

城市化与生态环境之间客观上存在着极其复杂的交互耦合关系,如何实现城市化与生态环境协调发展将是世界经济社会发展的核心议题,也是近年来国内外研究的热点命题。首先构建了城市化和生态环境系统综合评价指标体系,然后借助物理学耦合模型,构建了城市化与生态环境动态耦合协调度模型,定量分析了1980—2011年京津冀地区城市化与生态环境的耦合过程与演进趋势。结果表明:人口城市化和生态压力分别对城市化子系统与生态环境子系统的贡献份额最大,明显高于其他因素;在耦合协调度测算模型中,城市化子系统与生态环境子系统3种不同贡献份额所得出的耦合协调度的变化趋势是一致的,表明耦合协调度模型受城市化与生态环境子系统贡献份额比例的影响很小;1980年以来京津冀地区的城市化与生态环境耦合协调度呈现出S型曲线变化,协调类型从严重不协调-城市化受阻发展到高级协调-生态环境滞后类型;正确认识城市化与生态环境交互胁迫的时空动态耦合规律,采取恰当的区域发展政策和适当的城市发展战略,对进一步加快区域城市化进程,改善生态环境,实现京津冀地区城市化与生态环境的协调和可持续发展具有重要的指导意义。

Quantitative investigation of the interactive coupling relationship between urbanization and eco-environment

Over the past three decades, China''s gradual transition toward an urbanization-oriented development strategy has generated a spectacular urbanization development with an average annual growth rate at 0.93%. Although, China achieved a great success in urbanization process, many serious challenges appeared at the same time, such as, population explosion, resources scarcity, and eco-environmental deterioration. Accordingly, China''s rapid urbanization has been characterized by high-speed economic growth and a series of environmental issues. As it is widely known that there exists an extremely complex interactive coupling and coercing relationship between urbanization and eco-environment, which indicates that urbanization has a strong coercing effect on eco-environment, and eco-environment has a lagged constraint force on urbanization. How to realize the coordinated development of urbanization and eco-environment is not only the key issue in the world economic and social development, but also a hot topic in domestic research in recent years. To start with, this paper establishes a comprehensive index system for assessment of the level of urbanization based on four aspects (population urbanization, spatial urbanization, social urbanization and economic urbanization) and eco-environment based on four aspects (resource factor, eco-environment endowment, eco-environment pressure and eco-environment response). Furthermore, each indictor in the compound system is weighted with subjective and objective weight determination methods: the methods of AHP, entropy and multi-objective decision-making power coefficient. Finally, a coupling coordination degree model focusing on the coupling processes and evolution trends of the compound system of urbanization and eco-environment is established, based on the physical model from 1980 to 2011 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results show that: (1) population urbanization and the eco-environmental pressure make the greatest contribution to the urbanization subsystem and the eco-environmental subsystem respectively, indicating that they are the significant factors when adjusting the compound coupling coordination system during decision-making; (2) in the coupling coordination degree model, the three different subsets of contributions of the urbanization subsystem and the eco-environmental subsystem make no differences to the coupling coordination degree between urbanization and eco-environment system, which indicates that the two parameters have less effect on the coupling coordination system; (3) the coupling coordination degree between urbanization and eco-environment shows an S-shaped curve, and both subsystems evolve from the seriously unbalanced development with urbanization hindered into superiorly balanced development with environment lagged; (4) we argue that it is important to recognize the spatial-temporal dynamic coupling law of interactive coercing between urbanization and eco-environment. It is of great significance to take appropriate urbanization development modes to realize sustainable development between urbanization and eco-environment in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Furthermore, the results of this study also offer a scientific decision-making for achieving the goal of eco-environment protection and promoting the healthy urbanization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.