The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized
city |
| |
| Authors: | Daniela G Morato Florisneide R Barreto José U Braga Marcio S Natividade Maria da Concei??o N Costa Vanessa Morato Maria da Glória Lima Cruz Teixeira |
| |
| Institution: | 1.Instituto de Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, BA, Brasil;2.Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil;3.Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil |
| |
| Abstract: | Understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is important to allow
for improvements of control measures. To investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of an
epidemic dengue occurred at a medium-sized city in the Northeast Region of Brazil in
2009, we conducted an ecological study of the notified dengue cases georeferenced
according to epidemiological week (EW) and home address. Kernel density estimation
and space-time interaction were analysed using the Knox method. The evolution of the
epidemic was analysed using an animated projection technique. The dengue incidence
was 6.918.7/100,000 inhabitants; the peak of the epidemic occurred from 8 February-1
March, EWs 6-9 (828.7/100,000 inhabitants). There were cases throughout the city and
was identified space-time interaction. Three epicenters were responsible for
spreading the disease in an expansion and relocation diffusion pattern. If the health
services could detect in real time the epicenters and apply nimbly control measures,
may possibly reduce the magnitude of dengue epidemics. |
| |
| Keywords: | dengue epidemiology epidemic diffusion spatiotemporal trajectory |
|
|
