Modelling Spatio-Temporal Effects of Environment on Atlantic Herring, Clupea harengus

Trends in mean abundance of North Sea Atlantic herring, Clupea harengus, over the period of 1992–1995, were modelled as a function of spatial location and ocean environmental conditions using generalized additive models (GAM). In all four years, the average herring abundance was found to be highest in latitudes around 60.5°N, and decreased with increasing latitude. The thermocline depth had a significant effect on prespawning herring abundance both directly, as a main effect, and indirectly, through its interactive effect with the temperature at 60m. Average herring abundance was highest in areas having deeper thermocline depths (up to 45m) and temperatures at 60m between 9 and 11°C. Prespawning herring abundance was greater in areas of cooler surface waters in the south than in the north. Well-mixed waters and transition zones between frontal and stratified areas having sea surface temperatures mainly between 11 and 12°C and to a lesser extent between 13 and 14°C were associated with the highest herring abundance. Herring appeared to avoid the cold bottom waters in summer. Multiyear GAM analysis revealed consistent environmental preferenda of herring and affirmed further a significant decrease in herring abundance. As herring numbers declined, the population aggregated in the most preferred areas. The inter-relationships of herring and environmental factors across the study period, were similar in their structure and significance, suggesting that preferred areas for location of herring can be reasonably predicted.