Forecasting Climate Change Effects on Salamander Distribution in the Highlands of Central Mexico1

A generalized decline of amphibian populations is occurring worldwide. The causes for such a decline are not completely understood; however, climate change has been identified as a possible cause for amphibian extinction, among others. Ecological niche modeling has proven to be a useful tool to predict potential distribution of species in the context of climatic changes. In this paper, we used the Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐set Prediction (GARP) to model the potential distributions of two species of plethodontid salamanders: Pseudoeurycea cephalica and P. leprosa. We projected their potential distributions under climatic scenarios expected in 50 yr based on a conservative scenario of global climate change and assuming a moderate dispersal ability for both species. Our analyses suggest that climate change effects may pose an additional long‐term risk to both species of plethodontid salamanders, with a more dramatic scenario in the case of P. leprosa. By the year 2050, this species may lose almost 75 percent of its distributional area, and this projection is even worse when deforestation (in the way it is occurring at present) is considered within the predicted model. Our results concur with those obtained for species with limited dispersal capability because they do not track changing climates, but rather face a loss of distributional area. The survival of these species is not secure, even though their potential distributional area falls within a considerable number of natural protected areas.