Comparing predicted yield and yield stability of willow and Miscanthus across Denmark |
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Authors: | Søren Larsen Deepak Jaiswal Niclas S Bentsen Dan Wang Stephen P Long |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg C, Denmark;2. Energy Bioscience Institute, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA;3. International Center for Ecology, Meteorology and Environment, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China;4. Departments of Crop Sciences and of Plant Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA |
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Abstract: | To achieve the goals of energy security and climate change mitigation in Denmark and the EU, an expansion of national production of bioenergy crops is needed. Temporal and spatial variation of yields of willow and Miscanthus is not known for Denmark because of a limited number of field trial data. The semi‐mechanistic crop model BioCro was used to simulate the production of both short‐rotation coppice (SRC) willow and Miscanthus across Denmark. Predictions were made from high spatial resolution soil data and weather records across this area for 1990–2010. The potential average, rain‐fed mean yield was 12.1 Mg DM ha?1 yr?1 for willow and 10.2 Mg DM ha?1 yr?1 for Miscanthus. Coefficient of variation as a measure for yield stability was poorest on the sandy soils of northern and western Jutland, and the year‐to‐year variation in yield was greatest on these soils. Willow was predicted to outyield Miscanthus on poor, sandy soils, whereas Miscanthus was higher yielding on clay‐rich soils. The major driver of yield in both crops was variation in soil moisture, with radiation and precipitation exerting less influence. This is the first time these two major feedstocks for northern Europe have been compared within a single modeling framework and providing an important new tool for decision‐making in selection of feedstocks for emerging bioenergy systems. |
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Keywords: | BioCro bioenergy C4 photosynthesis crop model geospatial modeling mechanistic model Miscanthus perennial grasses short‐rotation coppice Willow Wimovac |
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