Toward a predictive macrosystems framework for migration ecology

Concern about the sustainability of intercontinental‐scale migration systems grows apace with global change. Traditional organism‐centred approaches to this problem have provided insights at the population level, but not at the systems level. We are sceptical that an accumulation of data from a species‐by‐species approach will yield an understanding of these systems in the near term. As an alternative, we advocate a new research programme that grows from an explicitly system‐based framework that leverages existing Earth observation infrastructure to make inferences directly at the macrosystem level. We illustrate how this approach can be used to generate and test system‐level predictions, using NEXRAD radar data as an example. We urge organismal ecologists to recognize that some of the most urgent migration questions are at the macrosystem scale and that tackling these questions requires an interdisciplinary approach if we are to make progress at a pace that exceeds that of climate change.