The reliability of geostatistic interpolation in olive field floral phenology

Floral phenology, as most of natural phenomena, shows, as an inherent feature, a high degree of spatial continuity. Geostatistics are a family of statistics that describe correlations through space/time and they can be used for both quantifying spatial correlation and interpolating no monitored sampling points. The combined use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and geostatistics can be an essential tool for spatial analysis in phenological and aerobiological studies. In the present work, Kriging interpolation by using linear geostatistic analysis has allow us to estimate phenological data of a wide olive crop area of the province of Cordoba (Andalusia, Southern Spain), on the basis of a limited number of␣phenology sampling points. The main a priori hypothesis was that 7 traditionally observed sampling points (with 10 olive trees in each site) uniformly distributed through the main olive crop areas could be enough for interpolating phenological information of the whole Cordoba olive area. Geostatistical results reject this hypothesis. The optimum/minimum number and location of sampling points was determined in 13 sites (including the original 7 sites and 6 new sites). The obtained phenological maps will improve␣olive pollen aerobiological information and forecasting in the area. The application of such new combined space analysis tools on floral phenology allows optimising human and economic resources on field phenology campaigns. Moreover, an appropriate use of GIS and geostatistic software to create phenological maps will be an essential complement in pollen aerobiological studies, given the increased interest in obtaining automatic aerobiological forecasting maps.