Spatial and temporal dynamics of Siberian silk moth large-scale outbreak in dark-needle coniferous tree stands in Altai

The spatial and temporal dynamics of fir stands damage caused by a large-scale outbreak of the Siberian silk moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.) in the Altai Mountains has been studied using remote sensing and GIS methods. It is ascertained that forest damages are dissimilar relative to the surface features. The pest outbreak initially occurred on the southwest slopes with mean values of 10° and elevation of 400 m asl. The damages further extended both upward and downward, involving slopes of high steepness and the eastern exposure. The total area of the dead stands comprised 6000 ha, 45% of which were lost due to secondary pest (xylophagous insects) attacks. It is indicated that the use of remote sensing made it possible to determine the beginning of a pest outbreak with one-decade precision. The Siberian silk moth large-scale outbreak occurred against an increase in air temperatures, a decrease in precipitation, and a reduction in late frosts. The tree plants weakened by the Siberian silk moth and water stress were affected by xylophagous insect attacks. The observed and predicted warming and climate aridity increase will facilitate Siberian silk moth outbreaks both within its range and northward of the current margins of the range.