Modelling the population dynamics of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium Tamarense in Hiroshima Bay, Japan

In the present study, a numerical model that simulates speciescompetition between the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium tamarenseand the non-toxic diatom Skeletonema costatum was constructedusing data from a number of experiments and field observations.In the model, not only vertical migration of swimming cellsbut also the encystment and excystment processes of A. tamarensewere taken into consideration. Sinking of S. costatum cellswas also considered. Both zooplankton and oysters, which areintensively cultured in this bay, feed on the phytoplanktonbut the contribution of grazing to the decrease in the celldensities of both species was small. The model predicts thatwhile sinking is one of the major processes that reduce thecell density of S. costatum, encystment of A. tamarense is acrucial process that determines the cessation of blooms of thisdinoflagellate. Advection and diffusion are also important physicalprocesses that affect, in positive and negative ways, the fluctuationof cell densities.