Combining system dynamic model and CLUE-S model to improve land use scenario analyses at regional scale: A case study of Sangong watershed in Xinjiang,China |
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| Authors: | Geping Luo Changying Yin Xi Chen Wenqiang Xu Lei Lu |
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| Institution: | 1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China;2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;3. XIEG-UCR International Center for Arid Land Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjinag, China;1. Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;3. National-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring, Lanzhou 730070, China;4. Gansu Provincial Engineering Laboratory for National Geographic State Monitoring, Lanzhou 730070, China;5. School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA;1. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;3. Community and Regional Planning Program, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, NE 68588, USA;4. Tianjin University Research Institute of Urban Planning, Tianjin 300073, China;1. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;2. College of Geographic Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China;3. Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway;1. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;3. School of Geographical Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China;4. Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China |
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| Abstract: | Uses of models of land use change are primary tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of land use changes, assessing the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and supporting land use planning and policy. However, no single model is able to capture all of key processes essential to explore land use change at different scales and make a full assessment of driving factors and impacts. Based on the multi-scale characteristics of land use change, combination and integration of currently existed models of land use change could be a feasible solution. Taken Sangong watershed as a case study, this paper describes an integrated methodology in which the conversion of land use and its effect model (CLUE), a spatially explicit land use change model, has been combined with a system dynamic model (SD) to analyze land use dynamics at different scales. A SD model is used to calculate area changes in demand for land types as a whole while a CLUE model is used to transfer these demands to land use patterns. Without the spatial consideration, the SD model ensures an appropriate treatment of macro-economic, demographic and technology developments, and changes in economic policies influencing the demand and supply for land use in a specific region. With CLUE model the land use change has been simulated at a high spatial resolution with the spatial consideration of land use suitability, spatial policies and restrictions to satisfy the balance between land use demand and supply. The application of the combination of SD and CLUE model in Sangong watershed suggests that this methodology have the ability to reflect the complex behaviors of land use system at different scales to some extent and be a useful tool for analysis of complex land use driving factors such as land use policies and assessment of its impacts on land use change. The established SD model was fitted or calibrated with the 1987–1998 data and validated with the 1998–2004 data; combining SD model with CLUE-S model, future land use scenarios were analyzed during 2004–2030. This work could be used for better understanding of the possible impacts of land use change on terrestrial ecosystem and provide scientific support for land use planning and managements of the watershed. |
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