Effects of urban and non-urban land cover on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff to Chesapeake Bay

The aim of this study was to determine the effects of catchment and riparian stream buffer-wide urban and non-urban land cover/land use (LC/LU) on total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) runoff to the Chesapeake Bay. The effects of the composition and configuration of LC/LU patches were explored in particular. A hybrid-statistical-process model, the SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW), was calibrated with year 1997 watershed-wide, average annual TN and TP discharges to Chesapeake Bay. Two variables were predicted: (1) yield per unit watershed area and (2) mass delivered to the upper estuary. The 166,534 km² watershed was divided into 2339 catchments averaging 71 km². LC/LU was described using 16 classes applied to both the catchments and also to riparian stream buffers alone. Seven distinct landscape metrics were evaluated. In all, 167 (TN) and 168 (TP) LC/LU class metric combinations were tested in each model calibration run. Runs were made with LC/LU in six fixed riparian buffer widths (31, 62, 125, 250, 500, and 1000 meters (m)) and entire catchments. The significance of the non-point source type (land cover, manure and fertilizer application, and atmospheric deposition) and factors affecting land-to-water delivery (physiographic province and natural or artificial land surfaces) was assessed. The model with a 31 m riparian stream buffer width accounted for the highest variance of mean annual TN (r² = 0.9366) and TP (r² = 0.7503) yield (mass for a specified time normalized by drainage area). TN and TP loadings (mass for a specified time) entering the Chesapeake Bay were estimated to be 1.449 × 10⁸ and 5.367 × 10⁶ kg/yr, respectively. Five of the 167 TN and three of the 168 TP landscape metrics were shown to be significant (p-value ≤ 0.05) either for non-point sources or land-to-water delivery variables. This is the first demonstration of the significance of riparian LC/LU and landscape metrics on water quality simulation in a watershed as large as the Chesapeake Bay. Land cover metrics can therefore be expected to improve the precision of estimated TN and TP annual loadings to the Chesapeake Bay and may also suggest changes in land management that may be beneficial in control of nutrient runoff to the Chesapeake Bay and similar watersheds elsewhere.