The Role of Convictions and Trust for Public Protest Potential in the Case of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS)

For the public to accept new technologies, trust and convictions play an important role. In the present research, we used structural equation modeling to examine an extensive causal model of the role of convictions and trust for the public's protest potential against carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) among a large sample of the general population (N = 769). Trust, convictions, perceived benefits, and risks were included in the model. Our model fitted the data well. Convictions regarding emission reduction, decentralization of energy production, and tampering with natural structures in the deep subsurface influenced the perception of benefits and risks. Trust, in contrast, was barely influential. Perceived benefits were more prominent for public protest potential than perceived risks. However, perceived benefits did not dominate perceived risks as much as earlier studies found for acceptance. We argue that trust can become fully effective as a determinant of perceived risks and benefits only when the public perceives the distinct positioning of the stakeholders involved. Until then, laypeople are likely to draw on their own convictions and intuitive mental concepts for making decisions about accepting a new technology or protesting it.