Statistical power of replicated helicopter surveys in southern African conservation areas

Understanding the ecology of large ungulates in southern Africa requires accurate and precise measures of population size. Recovery or exploitation of ungulates in reserves is currently instigated when population size changes exceed 15% per annum, but monitoring is usually undertaken with single counts from helicopters, for which precision and the power to detect change are untested. In essence, power being the strength of a monitoring result in showing change over time. Retrospective power analysis is a useful technique to investigate the variability of single‐count aerial surveys. Using replicated helicopter‐based counts of southern African ungulates and post hoc analysis, we investigated the power of currently used single‐count surveys across five common ungulate species and 11 wildlife reserves. We expected high variability in count data and set α = 0.1 and 0.2 (α being the type I error rate), and asked two questions: ‘How much does power vary in replicated aerial counts of southern African wildlife across reserves and species?’ and ‘Can current single‐count aerial surveys detect population changes in response to management actions or are the statistical errors intractable?’ Single counts were mostly unreliable; only one of 42 had sufficient power to detect meaningful changes in population size or their trends at α = 0.1, and only three had sufficient power at α = 0.2. Power varied widely according to species (e.g. warthog, median power at α = 0.1; 0.12–0.37: blue wildebeest, median power at α = 0.1; 0.23–0.74), and, within species, between replicates and reserves. Our retrospective calculations demonstrated insensitivity and ineffectiveness in most currently applied single counts from helicopters. Consequently, it is impossible to interpret the effects of ungulate conservation actions on many southern African reserves. Retrospective power analyses enables determination of which previous aerial surveys were useful for population assessment and adaptive management, and which should be discarded. We recommend that prospective power analyses are undertaken to determine future helicopter survey sample size and replication requirements, especially in small reserves.