Projecting the impacts of rising seawater temperatures on the distribution of seaweeds around Japan under multiple climate change scenarios

Seaweed beds play a key role in providing essential habitats and energy to coastal areas, with enhancements in productivity and biodiversity and benefits to human societies. However, the spatial extent of seaweed beds around Japan has decreased due to coastal reclamation, water quality changes, rising water temperatures, and heavy grazing by herbivores. Using monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1960 to 2099 and SST‐based indices, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of warming seawater on the spatial extent of suitable versus unsuitable habitats for temperate seaweed Ecklonia cava, which is predominantly found in southern Japanese waters. SST data were generated using the most recent multiple climate projection models and emission scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). In addition, grazing by Siganus fuscescens, an herbivorous fish, was evaluated under the four RCP simulations. Our results suggest that continued warming may drive a poleward shift in the distribution of E. cava, with large differences depending on the climate scenario. For the lowest emission scenario (RCP2.6), most existing E. cava populations would not be impacted by seawater warming directly but would be adversely affected by intensified year‐round grazing. For the highest emission scenario (RCP8.5), previously suitable habitats throughout coastal Japan would become untenable for E. cava by the 2090s, due to both high‐temperature stress and intensified grazing. Our projections highlight the importance of not only mitigating regional warming due to climate change, but also protecting E. cava from herbivores to conserve suitable habitats on the Japanese coast.