Modelling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Last Millennium |
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| Authors: | Elena Xoplaki Jürg Luterbacher Sebastian Wagner Eduardo Zorita Dominik Fleitmann Johannes Preiser-Kapeller Abigail M Sargent Sam White Andrea Toreti John F Haldon Lee Mordechai Deniz Bozkurt Sena Akçer-Ön Adam Izdebski |
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| Institution: | 1.Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Geography,Justus-Liebig-University Giessen,Giessen,Germany;2.Centre of International Development and Environmental Research,Justus-Liebig-University Giessen,Giessen,Germany;3.Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht,Geesthacht,Germany;4.Department of Archaeology and Centre for Past Climate Change, School of Human and Environmental Sciences,University of Reading,Reading,UK;5.Institute for Medieval Research/Division of Byzantine Research,Austrian Academy of Sciences,Vienna,Austria;6.History Department,Princeton University,Princeton,USA;7.History Department,Ohio State University,Columbus,USA;8.European Commission, Joint Research Centre,Ispra,Italy;9.Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Department of Geophysics,University of Chile,Santiago,Chile;10.Geological Engineering Department,Mugla Sitki Kocman University,Mugla,Turkey;11.Byzantine History Department, Institute of History,Jagiellonian University in Krakow,Krakow,Poland;12.School of Historical Studies,Institute for Advanced Study,Princeton,USA;13.Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History,Jena,Germany |
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| Abstract: | This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095–1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260–1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion (1580–1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history. |
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