Shoot Extension in Picea sitchensis II. Analysis of Weather Influences on Daily Growth Rate

The influence of mean temperature and total solar radiationon the daily increment of shoots of 12-year-old Picea sitchensisis described. Serial auto and cross-correlation analysis isused to show that variation in shoot increment is correlatedwith variations in weather occurring over several previous hours.The relationships between daily increments for the leading andtopmost five whorl shoots and the two controlling variablesof temperature and solar radiation are described for the firsthalf of the growing season by auto-regressive models fittedby time-series methods as described by Box and Jenkins. Thesedynamic system models showed that there was a delay of one dayand two days respectively in the influence of temperature andsolar radiation on shoot increment and that after these delaysthe response continued for more than a single day. The maximumfinal response (or steady state gain) of a typical topmost shootto temperature and solar radiation change was found to be 0.091mm d^–1(°C)^–1 and 0.027 mm d^–1 (MJ m^–2)^–1.For the normal range of these variables experienced this indicatesthat shoot extension was five times more sensitive to changesin temperature than to those in solar radiation. Picea sitchensis, Sitka spruce, shoot growth, weather influences, ARMA model, time-series analysis, Box-Jenkins method