长三角城市群生态系统服务权衡强度时空演变及影响因素

人类活动扰动加剧了长三角城市群生态系统结构演变,从而导致不同生态系统服务之间冲突加剧。明晰城市生态系统服务权衡强度及其影响因素对经济社会发展与生态保护的双赢具有重要意义。基于InVEST模型分析长三角城市群2005年、2019年碳储存、粮食生产、生境质量、产水量和氮输出量生态系统服务时空格局演变,并利用相关性分析、均方根误差指数和冗余分析方法,测度权衡强度并揭示权衡强度演变的关键影响因素。结果表明：粮食生产分别与碳储存、生境质量和产水量之间,以及氮输出量与生境质量和碳储存之间,碳储存与产水量之间呈现出显著的权衡关系;权衡强度空间异质性显著的粮食生产与碳储存,粮食生产与产水量的权衡强度高值主要集中在北部粮食主产区和南部山区。氮输出与碳储存、碳储存与产水量之间的高强度权衡关系主要位于南部地区。粮食生产与生境质量以及氮输出与生境质量的高强度权衡区域多集中在社会经济快速发展地区。长三角城市群生态系统服务权衡强度受多个因素共同作用,其主要影响因素包括坡度、林地覆盖率、农田覆盖率、降雨、气温、建设用地率等。

Spatiotemporal dynamics and influencing factors of ecosystem service trade-offs in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

Human disturbance aggravates the evolution of ecosystem structure in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration, China which leads to the conflict between different ecosystem services (ESs). It is of great significance to clarify the trade-off intensity of ESs and its influencing factors in order to achieve the win-win goal of socioeconomic development and ecological protection. However, identification of the influencing factors and their underlying mechanisms in complex relationships among ESs remain under-researched. This study employed the YRD urban agglomeration as the study area and investigated the spatio-temporal changes of five key ESs in 2005 and 2019, such as carbon storage (CS), crop production (CP), habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY) and nitrogen export (NE) by applying Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model. Spearman correlation analysis and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) indicator were used for analyzing the trade-off intensity and their spatial pattern in the YRD urban agglomeration. Furthermore, redundancy analysis (RDA) method was used to reveal the key influencing factors of trade-off intensity. The results revealed that the amount of total carbon storage of the YRD urban agglomeration decreased by 1.17% from 2005 to 2019, the amount of total crop production increased by 30.18%, the amount of water yield increased by 87.92%, the amount of nitrogen export increased by 2.56%, and habitat quality decreased by 3.38%. In terms of spatial distribution, the high value areas of carbon storage, water yield and habitat quality were mainly concentrated in the southern area, while the total amount of crop production and nitrogen export in the northern region was higher. The spatial heterogeneity of trade-off intensity was significant, and the high values of trade-off intensity between CP-CS and CP-WY were mainly concentrated in the northern and the southern YRD urban agglomeration. The high values of trade-off intensity between NE-CS and CS-WY were mainly located in the southern region. The high values of trade-off intensity between CP-HQ and NE-HQ were mainly concentrated in the areas with rapid socio-economic development. The statistics of trade-off intensity showed that the overall trade-off intensity has increased from 2005 to 2019. The dynamics of ESs trade-off intensity in the YRD urban agglomeration was significantly affected by natural and socioeconomic factors, including slope, proportion of forestland, proportion of farmland, precipitation, temperature, proportion of construction land and so on. Slope, proportion of forestland and precipitation were negatively correlated with the trade-off intensity of NE-HQ, and positively correlated with other ESs pairs. The proportion of construction land, temperature, proportion of farmland and other factors were negatively correlated with the trade-off intensity of five ESs pairs except NE-HQ. Slope and proportion of forestland had a strongly positive correlation with CP-CS and CS-WY, but a strongly negative correlation with trade-off intensity of NE-HQ. The trade-off intensity of CP-CS was strongly correlated with proportion of construction land. The findings could improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of trade-offs and their correlations with related factors.