耦合InVEST-HFI-PLUS模型的生态分区规划与动态评估——以博尔塔拉蒙古自治州为例

生态分区规划是平衡区域生态保护与发展建设，促进区域可持续发展的重要手段。以博尔塔拉蒙古自治州为例，通过耦合InVEST-HFI-PLUS模型，在评估研究区生境质量与人类足迹指数的基础上，进行生态分区规划。利用2005年与2020年两期土地利用数据，借助PLUS模型模拟自然发展与规划保护两种情景下研究区2035年的土地利用状况，并动态评估不同情景下的生态系统服务水平，对比分析不同情景的实际效益。结果表明：(1)研究区整体生境质量较好，有56%的区域生境质量等级为高；研究区人类足迹指数呈现四周低、中部高的分布格局。(2)综合生境质量与人类足迹指数，可以将研究区划分为重点保护区、重点修复区以及适度开发区三个生态管制分区，其中重点保护区面积占比为52.8%,重点修复区面积占比为42%,适度开发区面积占比为5.2%。(3)对2035年两种情景下的土地利用模拟与生态系统服务价值评估表明，规划保护情景下生态系统服务总价值较自然发展情景下提升4.16亿元，研究区生态条件有明显改善。

Ecological zoning planning and dynamic evaluation coupled with Invest-HFI-Plus model: A case study in Bortala Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture

Ecological zoning planning is an important means to balance regionally ecological protection and development, and to promote regional sustainable development. Taking Bortala Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture as an example, the ecological zoning planning was carried out on the basis of assessing the habitat quality and human footprint index in the study area by coupling the InVEST-HFI-PLUS model. Based on the land use data of 2005 and 2020, the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use status in 2035 under the two scenarios with natural development and planned protection, to evaluate the ecosystem service level under different scenarios, and to compare and analyze the actual benefits of different scenarios. The results indicated that:(1) the overall habitat quality of the study area was good, and 56% of the regions had high habitat quality grade. The HFI(Human footprint index) showed a pattern of low in the periphery and high in the middle of the study area. (2) Based on the combination of habitat quality and human footprint index, the study area could be divided into three ecological control zones:key protection area, key restoration area, and moderate development area. The key protection area accounted for 52.8%, the key restoration area accounted for 42%, and the moderate development area accounted for 5.2%. (3) Based on the land use simulation and ecosystem service value assessment in 2035 under the two scenarios, the total value of ecosystem services under the planned conservation scenario would be 416 million yuan higher than that under the natural development scenario, and the ecological conditions in the study area would be significantly improved.