Phenotypic plasticity and optimal timing of metamorphosis under uncertain time constraints

Life-history theory suggests that optimal timing of metamorphosis should depend on growth conditions and time constraints under which individuals develop. Current models cannot make reliable predictions for species in ephemeral habitats where individuals often face an increasing mortality risk over time because these models assume time-invariant mortality rates (i.e., daily mortality rates remain constant) and fixed seasons. We examined the plasticity of growth, development, and body mass at metamorphosis in tadpoles of the tree-hole breeding frog Phrynobatrachus guineensis in relation to an unpredictable time constraint in the field and in controlled experiments along a fixed density and food gradient. Mean mass and age at metamorphosis of sibships were positively correlated with per capita food level. Based on our results, we developed a simple model of the optimal timing of metamorphosis under time-dependent mortality rates showing that development rates are not only adjusted to growth conditions but also to time-variant mortality rates. The increasing mortality rate represents a time constraint that favors a reduced larval period, but because it is based on probabilities of survival it allows a trade-off between development time and mass. We extend this model to different types of time constraints and show that it can predict the range of documented reaction norms. Differences between species in␣the correlation of age and mass at metamorphosis may have evolved due to differences in their time-variant mortality rates.