大型医院可下沉门诊病人的筛选方法与实证研究

准确测算大型医院可以下沉的门诊病人数量，有助于明确分级诊疗潜力和评价分级诊疗政策的实施效果。通过专家咨询、数据模拟分析等方法，建立了大型医院可下沉门诊病人的数据库筛选方法，并以华东某大型城市为样本地区进行实证模拟，发现其50家大型医院2016年可下沉门诊病人数占比为18.76%，其中能被社区医疗机构承接的门诊病人次占比为11.23%。

Screening Methods and Empirical Study of Outpatients Who Can Flow from Tertiary Hospitals

Accurate measurement of potential flow number of outpatients from tertiary hospitals can help to clearly assess the effectiveness of tiered medical service system policy. Based on expert consultation, data simulation analysis and other methods, the study established a tertiary hospital potential outpatient flow screening method and chose a large city in East China as a sample area, and found that 18.76% outpatients can flow from tertiary hospital to community medical institutions in 2016, while according to the community health service capacity, only 11.23% outpatients can be treated by community medical institutions.