Identifying plausible scenarios for the establishment of invasive Burmese pythons (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Python molurus</Emphasis>) in Southern Florida |
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Authors: | John D Willson Michael E Dorcas Raymond W Snow |
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Institution: | (1) Savannah River Ecology Laboratory, PO Drawer E, Aiken, SC 29809, USA;(2) Department of Biology, Davidson College, Davidson, NC 28035-7118, USA;(3) Everglades National Park, 4001 State Road 9336, Homestead, FL 33034, USA;(4) Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 100 Cheatham Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA |
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Abstract: | Successful invasions of secretive alien species often go unrecognized until spread has exceeded the point where control or
eradication is feasible. In such situations, understanding factors that contributed to establishment can be critical to preventing
subsequent introductions of previously-successful invaders or ecologically similar species. The Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus), a native to Southeast Asia, is abundant in the pet trade and is now well-established in southern Florida. Although there
can be little argument that the ultimate source of Florida pythons was the pet industry, there has been limited consideration
of biological support for scenarios that may have lead to their establishment. In this study we use information on python
capture rates and biologically-derived population growth models to evaluate the plausibility of various scenarios for python
establishment. Our results indicate that scenarios involving relatively recent establishment (post-1990) require large numbers
(100–1,000) of founders or unrealistically high juvenile survivorship. Intentional simultaneous release of large numbers of
pythons is unlikely and accidental release of large numbers of founders is inconsistent with the spatial and temporal pattern
of pythons captures in the region. We conclude that the most parsimonious scenario for establishment of pythons in Florida
involves the release of a relatively small number of founders prior to 1985. Our results demonstrate that for pythons and
other species with low inherent detection probabilities, early action during incipient phases of an invasion is critical and
understanding likely introduction scenarios is important for preventing similar situations from occurring elsewhere or with
other species. |
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