Genetic inhomogeneous Poisson processes describing the roles of an isolated mature tree in forest regeneration

The spatial distribution of genotyped adult plants and offspring can be modeled by genetic inhomogeneous Poisson processes. This paper reports the development of a previously proposed point process model to cover safe site conditions for sapling survival, unknown seed sources and wider ranges of dispersal kernels. Suppose that a species has limited seed dispersal and shade-tolerance, and that young trees are clustered around highly isolated adults. The clustering might be formed solely by dispersed seeds from adults. However, the survival of the offspring might be influenced by shading by the adults crowns. The new genetic processes are applicable to such cases, as demonstrated for a young population of Fagus crenata, a shade-tolerant canopy tree species, in a 55-year-old stand regenerated after shelterwood logging. Isozyme analysis revealed that the regenerating trees were genetically related to the nearest adults, but some were not their respective daughters. The maximum likelihood method has led us to the following regeneration: seeds were dispersed mostly within 20 m of their mothers; two residual adults in the plot had equal female reproductive success; about 10% of offspring even close to the adult were not their daughters; the adults crowns reduced the survival of offspring up to 20–25 m away. However, the degree of model fitting was unsatisfactory. Hence, our models, in principle, can quantify two roles of highly isolated adults: providing seed sources and safe sites, but the case study suggests that other, unknown factors influence F. crenata regeneration after shelterwood harvesting.