Landscape and habitat affect frequency of artificial duck nest predation by native species,but not by an alien predator

Annual Finnish breeding duck surveys over the last 30 years show declining abundance among several species and greater declines on eutrophic waters than oligotrophic lakes. It has been suggested that habitat-related differences in the rate of increase in predation pressure is a potential explanation for contrasting duck population trajectories between habitats. We assessed potential duck nest predation risk and predator presence in various duck breeding habitats in Finland and Denmark by monitoring 333 artificial duck nests with wildlife cameras during 2017–2019. Predation rates differed between landscapes and habitats: nest predation rate and predator diversity were lowest in forested and highest in agricultural landscapes. Forest nests further from water bodies survived better than nests around shorelines of permanent lakes. Of the 16 different predator species detected, the most common were Eurasian magpie (Picapica), hooded crow (Corvus corone) and raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides). While predation by specific native predator species was typically associated with particular habitats and landscapes, the alien raccoon dog appeared to be a true habitat generalist, ubiquitous and common across all habitats and landscapes. Based on these results, the higher duck nest predation pressure along shorelines, especially in agricultural landscape lakes, due to increased diversity and abundance within the predator community, may contribute to the declining population trends of ducks.