Multi-event models reveal the absence of interaction between an invasive frog and a native endangered amphibian

Among the multiple factors involved in the decline of amphibians, competition with alien species remains understudied. In Western Europe, non-native marsh frogs (Pelophylax ridibundus and other sister species) have been widely imported for gastronomic purposes and have then often escaped from captivity. Apart from closely related species, the impact of the subsequent colonization of non-native species on native amphibians is still unknown. In this study, we analysed the response of a threatened species, the yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata), faced with the presence of alien frogs in mountain rivers in France. We studied the co-occurrence pattern of the native toad and the alien frog, while taking into account co-dependence of the detection rates in both species. We tested three main scenarios to explain a non-random pond occurrence for each species and to establish their respective habitat preferenda: (1) a pond-area-dependent scenario, predicting different responses from each species for a given pond size, (2) a fish-dependent scenario, predicting different responses from each species given the presence of fish in ponds, and (3) a floodplain-width-dependent scenario, predicting different responses from each species given the geomorphological characteristics of the floodplain. Taking into account site-specific covariates, we concluded that introduced frogs do not currently have an impact on the native population of the yellow-bellied toad.