海岛碳排放核算与时空特征——以东山岛为例

把握地区碳信息发展动态是开展区域碳平衡规划的科学基础。以统计年鉴数据为基础,对东山岛2012—2021年整体及各产业的直接碳排放量进行核算,同时,将产业与土地利用结合,分析其空间表现形态,运用核密度分析和克里金法分析碳排放源的空间影响,采用高斯烟羽模型对工业点源的碳排放扩散进行空间模拟,通过渔网和人口修正的方法分析海岛碳排放的空间分异,以此探讨海岛碳排放的空间分布和空间影响特征。结果显示,工业是东山岛的首要碳排放源,2021年工业碳排放量的大幅下降表明能源种类的转换对于工业碳减排具有重要作用;渔业碳排放量总体占比25%左右,是海岛地区不容忽视的碳排放源之一。在空间分布方面,东山岛综合碳排放的空间分布呈“点状聚集,面状扩散”的基本特征,工业碳排放对周围地区的影响最大,往往形成以工业碳排放源点为中心的碳排放热点核心区,其次碳排放量较高的地区为人口聚集区,丘陵区的碳排放量最低,不同土地利用类型之间形成碳排放的交叉过渡区。最后,本文从碳排放空间影响的视角出发,根据不同形态的碳排放源提出“包围”、“伴随”和“介入”的碳汇空间规划策略,这对区域的低碳规划具有一定参考意义。

Calculation of carbon emission and its spatio-temporal characteristics in Dongshan Island, Fujian Province

Grasping the development dynamics of regional carbon information is the scientific basis for carrying out regional carbon balance planning. Based on the statistical yearbook data, the direct carbon emissions of Dongshan Island, Fujian Province as a whole and each industry from 2012-2021 were caculated. At the same time, industries and land use were combined to analyze their spatial patterns. Kernel Density analysis and the Kriging method were applied to analyze the spatial influence of carbon emission sources. The Gaussian plume model was used to spatially simulate the carbon emission dispersion of industrial point sources. The spatial differentiation of carbon emission of the Dongshan island was analyzed by the method of fishing nets and population correction, in order to explore the spatial distribution and spatial influence characteristics of carbon emission on the Island. The results showed that industry was the primary source of carbon emissions. The significant decrease of industrial carbon emissions in 2021 indicated that the conversion of energy types played an important role in industrial carbon emission reduction. The overall share of carbon emissions from fisheries was about 25%, which was one of the sources of carbon emissions that could not be ignored in the Island area. The spatial distribution of integrated carbon emissions on Dongshan Island had the basic characteristics of "point-like aggregation and surface-like diffusion". The industrial carbon emissions had the greatest impact on the surrounding areas, often forming a core area of carbon emission hotspots centered on the industrial carbon emission source points. This was followed by areas with higher carbon emissions as population gathering areas, hilly areas with the lowest carbon emissions. A cross-transition zone of carbon emissions was formed between different land use types. Finally, from the perspective of spatial impact of carbon emission, this paper proposed the spatial planning strategies of "encircling", "accompanying", and "intervening" carbon sinks according to different forms of carbon emission sources, which could serve as a reference for regional low carbon planning.