基于土地利用变化的粤港澳大湾区生态系统服务价值预测研究

基于粤港澳大湾区2000、2005、2010和2015四个时期的遥感影像, 通过马尔科夫链预测其2025年的土地利用结构, 评估该时期区域的生态系统服务价值及其变化特征, 揭示出区域城市化进展对生态系统服务价值的影响。结果表明: 2000-2015年间, 研究区内的林地、水域、耕地面积逐渐减少, 而城镇建设用地迅速增长的同时挤压了其他地类空间, 在时间序列2010-2015年更为明显, 说明此现象并未得到有效遏制。根据预测的结果, 2025年城镇建设用地达到11387.10 km2, 但生态系统服务价值整体减少755.98亿元。

Study on the prediction of ecological system service values based on the changes of land use in Guangdong-Hongkong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Based on satellite image of Guangdong-Hongkong-Macao Greater Bay Area in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015,the article predicts its land use structure in 2025 through Markov and estimates its ecosystem service values and the change characteristics,which reveals the effect of regional urbanization on ecosystem service values.The result showed that from 2000 to 2015,in Guangdong-Hongkong-Macao Greater Bay Area,the area of the forests,water areas and farmlands were gradually decreased,while the urban constructive lands were increased rapidly,which squeezed other space of land use types.The phenomenon became more obviously from 2010 to 2015,which showed it had not been effectively controlled.According to the result,in 2025,the area of urban constructive lands will reach 11387.10 km^2,but the ecosystem service values will decrease 75.598 billion yuan.