基于CA-Markov模型的呼图壁县土地利用景观格局预测研究

以2002、2009、2016年三期遥感影像数据为基础, 运用GIS技术及景观生态学理论, 对呼图壁县近14年的土地利用景观格局变化特征及其各景观类型空间转化特点进行了分析。并结合CA-Markov模型对土地利用类型特征参数、景观格局指数等进行模拟, 预测和分析未来7年土地利用和景观格局演变特征。结果表明: 从时间尺度分析, 研究区内景观格局有较大变化, 主要表现为耕地与建设用地的增加; 从景观类型转移分析可知, 耕地与建设用地的交替变化最为显著, 其主要集中于中部地区; 景观类型水平指数分析得到, 林草地、水域及耕地整体破碎化程度低, 未利用地则表现相反; 从景观水平分析可知, 研究区内景观整体破碎度与复杂度增高, 同时斑块逐渐趋于离散分布, 景观结构不稳定性增加。研究结果可为该区域提供更为科学有效的生态环境保护措施, 以期为制定相关土地利用政策和合理配置土地资源提供参考。

Prediction of land use landscape pattern in Hutubi County based on CA-Markov model

Based on the remote sensing image data from 2002,2009,2016,using GIS technology and landscape ecology theory,the paper made an analysis about the changing characteristics of landscape structure and land use and spatial transformation features of various types of landscape in Hutubi county during the recent 14 years.The paper predicted and analyzed evolution characteristics of land use and landscape pattern in the next 7 years according to the CA-Markov model to simulate and acquire the parameter of land use,index of landscape pattern and so on.The result showed that great change about landscape pattern existed in the research district in terms of scale,and it mainly showed the increasing of the farm land and construction land;it concentrated in the central regions that alternative change between farm land and construction land was obvious and clear according to the transactional analysis of landscape types.It showed that the level of destruction on forest and grass land,water area,and farm land was lower according to the level index analysis of landscape types,and the unused land showed a contrary result.The fragmentation and complexity of the landscape in the research district increased;simultaneously clots tended to a condition of discrete distribution and the instability of landscape structure increased.The results of research provided the district with more efficient and scientific eco-environmental measures and references referring to making land use policies and rational configuration of land sources.