Australian bird phenology: a search for climate signals

Temporal and climate‐related changes in avian phenology were assessed for seven species of south‐eastern Australia using data obtained from members of the public, naturalist groups and other organizations. Despite significantly warmer temperatures (～0.02–0.03°C per year) and reduced rainfall (～1.6–8.0 mm per year) over much of south‐eastern Australia in recent decades, most species showed no corresponding trends in their timing of migration or breeding, the notable exceptions being the grey fantail (Rhipidura fuliginosa) and the flame robin (Petroica phoenicea), which migrate through Melbourne, Victoria, during autumn and spring. In many species, however, migration or breeding timing appeared to be influenced to some extent by local, rather than regional, climate conditions, particularly local daily maximum and minimum temperatures. Whether these species will noticeably change their phenology to match projected changes in climate, perhaps when a currently unknown climate threshold is crossed, or whether these species are sufficiently flexible in their foraging strategies or food sources to be able to maintain their current timing, remains to be seen.