Testing a method for reconstructing structural development of even-aged Abies sachalinensis stands

Accuracy of a stand reconstruction technique was examined by comparing the estimated values of the aboveground biomass, total stem volume, stem volume growth, and stand density of Abies sachalinensis stands to those observed between 1980 and 1998 in Hokkaido, northern Japan. Census data from two stands established in 1973, one fertilized and the other unfertilized, were used for the examination. The stand statistics in the past were estimated from the DBH and height of individual trees measured in 1998, data on the aboveground biomass and stem volume with bark for nine living trees of various sizes harvested in each plot in 1998 or in 1999, and data from the stem analysis of the same harvested trees. We showed that the reconstructed patterns of the frequency distribution in aboveground biomass and in stem volume were generally the same as those observed in both plots and in any year in the past (except for 1982 and/or 1980), and that the reproduced patterns of stand development over time were similar to those observed directly in the past. Accuracy in predicting stand statistics was generally in the order of ±10% relative error. We consider that the present method of stand reconstruction could be used to estimate aboveground biomass, total stem volume, and stem volume growth of a stand in the past. Interpretation of results for the early years (1982 and 1980) and for the stand density requires caution.