Modeling individual effects in the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model: a state-space formulation

Summary .   In population and evolutionary biology, there exists considerable interest in individual heterogeneity in parameters of demographic models for open populations. However, flexible and practical solutions to the development of such models have proven to be elusive. In this article, I provide a state-space formulation of open population capture–recapture models with individual effects. The state-space formulation provides a generic and flexible framework for modeling and inference in models with individual effects, and it yields a practical means of estimation in these complex problems via contemporary methods of Markov chain Monte Carlo. A straightforward implementation can be achieved in the software package WinBUGS . I provide an analysis of a simple model with constant parameter detection and survival probability parameters. A second example is based on data from a 7-year study of European dippers, in which a model with year and individual effects is fitted.