Risk analysis and management decisions for weed biological control agents: Ecological theory and modeling results |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Station Marine de Dinard, Museum National d''Histoire Naturelle, Dinard, France;2. Unité Biologie des organismes et écosystèmes aquatiques (BOREA), CNRS, IRD, Museum National d''Histoire Naturelle, Sorbonne Université, Université de Caen Normandie, Université des Antilles, Paris, France;3. Université de Rennes 1 - BOREA, (Museum National d''Histoire Naturelle, Sorbonne Université, Université de Caen Normandie, Université des Antilles) - Campus de Beaulieu, Rennes, France;4. UMS AFB-CNRS-MNHN PatriNat, Station Marine de Dinard - Museum National d''Histoire Naturelle, Dinard, France;5. Fish-Pass, Bureau d’études expert en ichtyologie appliquée, Laillé, France;1. Cetacean Ecology and Acoustics Laboratory, School of Veterinary Science, The University of Queensland, Gatton, Queensland 4343, Australia;2. Curtin University, GPO Box U 1987, Perth 6845, WA, Australia;3. School of Engineering, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, 2308, Australia;4. Blue Planet Marine, P.O. Box 919, Canberra ACT 2614, Australia;5. School of Geosciences, University of Sydney and Defence Science and Technology Group, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia;1. School of Veterinary Science, The University of Queensland, Gatton, Queensland 4343, Australia;2. Curtin University, GPO Box U 1987, Perth, 6845, WA, Australia;3. School of Engineering, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia;4. Blue Planet Marine, P.O. Box 919, Canberra, ACT 2614, Australia;5. Defence Science and Technology Group, University of Sydney, PO Box 44, Pyrmont, NSW 2009, Australia |
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| Abstract: | Biologically based control methods offer many advantages for the control of invasive plant species; however, these methods are not without risks to native species. Thus, there is a need for more effective and efficient methods of risk analysis for biological control agents. We show how the process of ecological risk assessment established by the United States’ Environmental Protection Agency may be adapted to improve assessment of the risks of proposed biological control agents. We discuss the risks posed by weed biological control agents, and present a simple individual-based model of herbivorous insect movement and oviposition on two species of host plant, a target invasive plant species and a non-target native species, in simulated landscapes. The model shows that risks of non-target impacts may be influenced by the details of the movement behavior of biological control agents in heterogeneous landscapes. The specific details of insect movement that appear to be relevant are readily measured in field trials and the general modeling approach is readily adapted to real landscapes. Current biological control risk assessments typically emphasize effects analysis at the expense of exposure analysis; the modeling approach presented here provides a simple and feasible way to incorporate exposure analyses. We conclude that models such as ours should be given serious consideration as part of a comprehensive strategy of risk assessment for proposed weed biological control agents. |
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