The value of decreasing the duration of the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection |
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Authors: | Bruce Y. Lee,Sarah M. Bartsch,Marie C. Ferguson,Patrick T. Wedlock,Kelly J. O’ Shea,Sheryl S. Siegmund,Sarah N. Cox,James A. McKinnell |
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Affiliation: | 1. Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), City University of New York Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York City, New York, United States of America;2. Infectious Disease Clinical Outcomes Research Unit (ID-CORE), Lundquist Institute, Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, Torrance, California, United States of America;3. Torrance Memorial Medical Center, Torrance, California, United States of America;Institute for Disease Modeling, UNITED STATES |
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Abstract: | Finding medications or vaccines that may decrease the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could potentially reduce transmission in the broader population. We developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential clinical and economic impact of reducing the infectious period duration. Simulation experiments found that reducing the average infectious period duration could avert a median of 442,852 [treating 25% of symptomatic cases, reducing by 0.5 days, reproductive number (R0) 3.5, and starting treatment when 15% of the population has been exposed] to 44.4 million SARS-CoV-2 cases (treating 75% of all infected cases, reducing by 3.5 days, R0 2.0). With R0 2.5, reducing the average infectious period duration by 0.5 days for 25% of symptomatic cases averted 1.4 million cases and 99,398 hospitalizations; increasing to 75% of symptomatic cases averted 2.8 million cases. At $500/person, treating 25% of symptomatic cases saved $209.5 billion (societal perspective). Further reducing the average infectious period duration by 3.5 days averted 7.4 million cases (treating 25% of symptomatic cases). Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R0 2.5), averted 35.9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving $48.8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). Our study quantifies the potential effects of reducing the SARS-CoV-2 infectious period duration. |
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