A mathematical model for mugwort (Artemisia vulgaris L.) pollen forecasts

Pollen forecasts are a fundamental prerequisite to obtain prophylactic measures for allergic individuals. Mugwort belongs to the most relevant allergenic pollen types after grasses and birch. An approach to modeling of mugwort pollen concentrations has not been attempted previously in Germany. A process-oriented mathematical model for the relative local daily average mugwort airborne pollen concentration was developed on the basis of pollen and weather data measured during a 6-year period. The model depends on the daily minimum and maximum temperature, amount of precipitation and atmospheric pressure, which have to and can be supplied by measurement and prediction. The comparison of modeling results and pollen counting for an additional year confirms the fitness of the model. A computer program was written, which rests upon the model and supplies daily predictions of mugwort pollen flight during the period of the weather forecast. The latter should allow a pollen forecasting period of about 5 days, with an accuracy of about 32–63% explained variance, which in view of the low mugwort pollen counts (nine grains/m³ maximum in the validation year) represents a high relative measurement error. The mathematical model may serve to improve and rationalize of present pollen forecasts.