区域气候变化情景下气候变率对我国水稻产量影响的模拟研究

利用中国随机天气模型将中国区域气候模式ＲＣＭ与作物模式ＣＥＲＥＳ－Ｒｉｃｅ相连接，模拟了３种气候变率（０％，１０％，２０％）水平下未来气候（２０５０年，假定此时ＣＯ２浓度为５５０ｍｇ／Ｌ）对我国水稻主产区（广州，长沙，南京）灌溉水稻和雨养水稻在考虑ＣＯ２肥效与否条件下的产量，模拟结果表明；（１）气候变率对水稻产量的影响因经营方式和研究地区的不同而有差异，对灌溉水稻来说，气候变率对其产量有负面影响，

Simulation of the effect of climate variability on China's rice yield under regional climate change

Using the Stochastic Weather Generator, the Regional Climate Model was linked with CERES Rice Model to simulate irrigated and rainfed rice yield in China's main rice production areas: Guangzhou, Changsha and Nanjing under future climate scenarios, assuming the concentration of CO 2 was 550mg/L in 2050. Three levels of climate variability for the fertility of CO 2 were taken into account. The simulation results show:(1) The influence of climate variability on rice yield is dissimilar due to differential management modes. To irrigated rice, climate variability has a negative effect on its yield. The greater climate variability is, the worse this kind of effect would be. To rainfed rice, climate variability has a positive effect on its yield in Guangzhou and Changsha. The effect of climate variability on rainfed rice yield in Nanjing is similar to that of the irrigated rice yield.(2) The fertility of CO 2 is a very important aspect and should not be ignored. It can lessen the scope of the drop in rice production to a great extent.