基于LUCC的江苏省生态系统服务价值时空变化特征研究

江苏省作为资源环境容量有限但经济发展迅速的典型代表，在可持续发展背景下，开展土地利用变化、生态系统服务变化及其价值时空变化的研究，以期为缩小区域经济差异进行科学土地整治提供理论依据。首先基于1995-2015年间研究区经济发展重要时间节点的土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）数据分析土地利用变化情况，然后引入评估计分理论动态研究生态系统服务变化，最后通过修正当量因子计算生态系统服务价值并应用空间自相关与热点分析方法研究其时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）耕地、建设用地和水体为研究区主要土地利用类型，总覆盖度达到90%以上；2005-2015年土地利用变化速度显著；苏南地区土地利用较为丰富。（2）对比各景观类型，森林是具有更多功能的生态系统；2015年功能属性总得分高于1995年，但生态功能得分由5分降至2分。（3）1995-2015年江苏省生态系统服务价值从1258.19亿元减少为1208.74亿元，苏南地区生态系统服务价值变化较大。据预测至2022年，生态系统服务价值会跌到1.35亿元。

Spatial and temporal changes of ecosystem service value in Jiangsu Province based on LUCC

Jiangsu province has low resources and environmental capacity, but its economy is developing rapidly. Carrying out change research on land use, ecosystem service and ecosystem service value in time and space, under the background of sustainable development, can provide theoretical basis for opening scientific land improvement to reduce regional economic differences. First of all, analysis of land use change situation based on 1995-2015 economic development important time of the node in the study area of land use/cover change (LUCC) data, then introduce assessment and scoring theory to dynamically study changes in ecosystem services, at last, by modified equivalent factor calculation value of ecosystem services and application of spatial autocorrelation analysis method to study the change of ecosystem service value in time and space with the hot spot. The results show that:(1) cultivated land, construction land and water are the main land use types in the study area, and the total coverage is more than 90%;2005-2015 has rapid land use change and the land use in southern part of jiangsu is rich.(2) compared with different landscape types, forest is an ecosystem with more functions; In 2015, the total score of functional attributes was higher than that of 1995, but the ecological function score decreased from 5 to 2 points.(3) Ecosystem services value in Jiangsu Province decreased from 125.189 billion yuan to 120.874 billion yuan and that in southern Jiangsu changed greatly from 1995-2015. It is predicted that by 2022, ESV will fall to 135 million yuan; the value of ecosystem services in southern Jiangsu has changed significantly.