Wood density as a proxy of drought-induced forest dieback in silver fir

Drought-induced dieback is a matter of global concern. It has been widely reported and could compromise the climate warming mitigation potential of forests. That is why we need reliable early-warning proxies to achieve better forecasts of forest dieback and tree death. Tree-ring data can provide some of these needed proxies. Here I propose considering minimum (MND) and maximum (MXD) wood density values as proxies of tree vulnerability against drought. This hypothesis is evaluated in silver fir (Abies alba) forests from the western Spanish Pyrenees showing ongoing dieback processes after the severe 1985 drought. MXD increased in response to warm summer conditions in 1985 whereas MND increased in response to growing-season water deficit in 1986. The average between prior MXD (MXD_t-1) and subsequent MND (MND_t) could be used to detect severe drought impacts and forecast dieback.