Buffered climate change effects in a Mediterranean pine species: range limit implications from a tree-ring study

Within-range effects of climatic change on tree growth at the sub-regional scale remain poorly understood. The aim of this research was to use climate and radial-growth data to explain how long-term climatic trends affect tree growth patterns along the southern limit of the range of Pinus nigra ssp. salzmannii (Eastern Baetic Range, southern Spain). We used regional temperature and precipitation data and measured sub-regional radial growth variation in P. nigra forests over the past two centuries. A dynamic factor analysis was applied to test the hypothesis that trees subjected to different climates have experienced contrasting long-term growth variability. We defined four representative stand types based on average temperature and precipitation to evaluate climate–growth relationships using linear mixed-effect models and multi-model selection criteria. All four stand types experienced warming and declining precipitation throughout the twentieth century. From the onset of the twentieth century, synchronised basal-area increment decline was accounted for by dynamic factor analysis and was related to drought by climate–growth models; declining basal-area increment trends proved stronger at lower elevations, whereas temperature was positively related to growth in areas with high rainfall inputs. Given the contrasting sub-regional tree-growth responses to climate change, the role of drought becomes even more complex in shaping communities and affecting selection pressure in the Mediterranean mountain forests. Potential vegetation shifts will likely occur over the dry edge of species distributions, with major impacts on ecosystem structure and function.