Local transmission processes and disease-driven host extinctions |
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Authors: | Alex Best Steve Webb Janis Antonovics Mike Boots |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK;(2) Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, G1 1XH, UK;(3) Department of Biology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA |
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Abstract: | Classic infectious disease theory assumes that transmission depends on either the global density of the parasite (for directly
transmitted diseases) or its global frequency (for sexually transmitted diseases). One important implication of this dichotomy
is that parasite-driven host extinction is only predicted under frequency-dependent transmission. However, transmission is
fundamentally a local process between individuals that is determined by their and/or their vector’s behaviour. We examine
the implications of local transmission processes to the likelihood of disease-driven host extinction. Local density-dependent
transmission can lead to parasite-driven extinction, but extinction is more likely under local frequency-dependent transmission
and much more likely when there is active local searching behaviour. Density-dependent directly transmitted diseases spread
locally can therefore lead to deterministic host extinction, but locally frequency-dependent passive vector-borne diseases
are more likely to cause extinctions. However, it is active searching behaviour either by a vector or between sexual partners
that is most likely to cause the host to go extinct. Our work emphasises that local processes are essential in determining
parasite-driven extinctions, and the role of parasites in the extinction of rare species may have been underplayed due to
the classic assumption of global density-dependent transmission. |
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