Moose recruitment in relation to bilberry production and bank vole numbers along a summer temperature gradient in Norway

The plant stress hypothesis states that plant stress factors other than herbivory improve herbivore performance due to changes in the content of nutritive or defensive compounds in the plants. In Norway, the bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus) is important forage for the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) in winter and for the moose (Alces alces) in summer and autumn. The observed peaks in bank vole numbers after years with high production of bilberries are suggested to be caused by increased winter survival of bank voles due to improved forage quality. High production of bilberries should also lead to higher recruitment rates in moose in the following year. We predict, however, that there is an increasing tendency for a 1-year delay of moose indices relative to vole indices with decreasing summer temperatures, because low temperatures prolong the period needed by plants to recover in the vole peak year, and thus positively affect moose reproduction also in the succeeding year. In eight out of nine counties in south-eastern Norway, there was a positive relationship between the number of calves observed per female moose during hunting and a bilberry seed production index or an autumn bank vole population index. When dividing the study area into regions, there was a negative relationship between a moose-vole time-lag index and the mean summer temperature of the region. These patterns suggest that annual fluctuations in the production of bilberries affect forage quality, but that the effect on moose reproduction also depends on summer temperatures.