县域耕地非农化、非粮化与乡村人口空心化的耦合协调关系——以长江经济带为例

耕地非农化、非粮化的不断扩大严重影响了我国的粮食安全,亟需研究其演变机制和管控措施。基于1990、2000、2010和2020年四期土地覆盖数据和农业劳动力数据,利用耦合协调度模型和探索性时空数据分析(ESTDA)方法,分析了长江经济带县域耕地非农化、非粮化和乡村人口空心化的时空演化特征及其耦合协调关系。结果表明:①非农化呈现东高西低的格局,且存在围绕中心城市高值集聚的态势。非粮化则大致呈现出西高东低的倾向,远离大城市的边远县域非粮化程度较高。研究期内非农化和非粮化呈整体加剧趋势,乡村人口空心化程度显著提升。②非农化、非粮化和乡村人口空心化之间呈现较强耦合作用,失调区域逐渐扩大。③非农化、非粮化和乡村人口空心化耦合协调度存在明显的空间集聚现象并逐渐增强。高值集聚区主要分布在上游地区且数量逐渐减少,低值集聚区分布相对分散。④非农化、非粮化和乡村人口空心化耦合协调度具有较强时空动态特征,但县域及其邻域协同变动的比例较高,表明具有较强的局域整合性。

Non-agricultural transformation and non-grain production and their coordinated relationships with rural population hollowing: A case study of Yangtze River Economic Belt

The continuous expansion of non-agricultural transformation and non-grain production of arable land has seriously affected China''s food security, and its evolution mechanism and control measures have already become an important subject. Given more existing researches focusing on the one-side discussion of non-agricultural transformation or non-grain production on a small scale, it is necessary to carry out the quantitative assessment research on the interaction among non-agricultural transformation, non-grain production and rural depopulation on the spatiotemporal perspective. Based on four periods of land use data and agricultural labor data in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of non-agricultural transformation, non-grain production, and rural population hollowing in county level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt were analyzed. The coupling and coordination degree between non-agricultural transformation, non-grain production and rural population hollowing was calculated using coupling and coordination analysis. Then, the spatio-temporal dynamics of the coupling and coordination degree were analyzed based on exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis (ESTDA). The results showed that: (1) There were significant disparities in the indicators of non-agricultural transformation, non- rain production and rural population hollowing. The non-agricultural transformation presented a pattern of high value in the east and low value in the west, and there was a trend of high value clustering around the central city. Non-grain production generally presented a tendency of west high and east low. The degree of non-grain production was higher in the remote areas far from big cities. During the study period, the trend of non-agricultural and non-grain production was intensified, and the hollowing degree of the rural population increased significantly. (2) There was a strong coupling effect between non-agricultural transformation and rural population hollowing, and the imbalance area was gradually expanding. (3) The coupling coordination degree of non-agricultural, non-grain and rural population hollowing had obviously spatial agglomeration phenomenon and gradually increases. The high-value clusters were mainly distributed in the upstream area and the number was gradually decreasing, while the low-value clusters were relatively dispersed. (4) The local spatial pattern of coupling coordination degree of non-agricultural, non-grain and rural population hollowing had strong spatio-temporal dynamics, and showed an increasing trend from the western region to the eastern region. The changing process of local dependencies was relatively stable which indicates the high development inertia of local dependencies. The proportion of cooperative change between counties and its neighborhood was high, indicating strongly local integration.