重庆市土地利用冲突多尺度时空演化与多情景演化模拟

土地利用冲突是区域土地开发利用过程中存在的客观问题,对区域经济社会发展和生态安全具有重要影响。识别、测度区域土地利用冲突,明晰其时空演化格局,有助于优化区域土地利用结构,促进土地资源的可持续利用。以重庆市为例,基于景观格局构建了土地利用冲突测度模型,从县域、镇域以及格网3个尺度全面和系统地分析了1995-2020年重庆市土地利用冲突的时空演化特征,并耦合多目标规划(Multi-Objective Programming,MOP)-斑块生成土地利用变化模拟模型(Ptach-generating Land Use Simulation,PLUS)模拟了重庆市2030年不同发展情景下土地利用冲突格局。结果表明:(1)1995-2020年重庆市县域、镇域与格网不同尺度下的土地利用冲突格局具有较大相似性,不同尺度的土地利用重度冲突区主要分布在重庆中心城区及周边地区,区县建成区。土地利用一般冲突区主要分布于渝东南和渝东北地区。研究期内土地利用冲突有所加剧,其中土地利用重度冲突区占比增加了3.09%。(2) 1995-2005年重庆市土地利用冲突区主体位于乡村地域,但冲突程度较低,随着工业化、城市化进程及人口的集聚,2005年后土地利用冲突热点区域的城市地域集聚效应显著,城市及周边地区土地利用冲突区面积和土地利用冲突度均显著提升。(3) 区域土地利用冲突空间格局不仅受到了人为经济社会活动的驱动影响,在空间格局上受自然生态环境基底影响显著,其中地形地貌的限制加剧了土地利用重度冲突区。(4)不同发展情景模拟中经济优先发展情景下土地利用冲突最为严重,生态优先发展情景下土地利用冲突最小,可持续发展情景兼顾了经济和生态发展的用地需求,土地利用冲突强度处于中间范围,但区域发展总福利最大,是未来区域发展路径最优选择。

Multi-scale spatio-temporal evolution and multi-scenario simulation of land use conflict in Chongqing

Land use conflict is an objective problem in the process of regional land development and utilization, which has an important impact on regional economic and social development and ecological security. Identifying and measuring regional land use conflicts and analyzing their spatial and temporal evolution patterns will help optimize the regional land use structure and promote the sustainable use of land resources. Taking Chongqing as an example, this paper constructs a land use conflict measurement model based on land use landscape pattern, comprehensively and systematically analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use conflict in Chongqing from 1995 to 2020 from three scales of county, town and grid, and coupled multi-objective programming (MOP) -ptach-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate the land use conflict pattern of Chongqing in 2030 under different development scenarios. The results show that: (1) from 1995 to 2020, the land use conflict patterns at different scales of county, town and grid in Chongqing had great similarities. The severe conflict areas of land use at different scales were mainly distributed in the central urban area and surrounding areas of Chongqing, and the built-up areas of districts and counties. The general conflict areas of land use were mainly distributed in the southeast and northeast of Chongqing. During the study period, land use conflicts intensified, and the proportion of land use severe conflict areas increased by 3.09%. (2) From 1995 to 2005, the main body of land use conflict area in Chongqing was located in rural areas, but the degree of conflict was low. With the process of industrialization, urbanization and population agglomeration, the agglomeration effect of land use conflict hotspots in urban areas was significant after 2005, and the area and degree of land use conflict in urban and surrounding areas were significantly improved. (3) The spatial pattern of regional land use conflict is not only driven by human economic and social activities, but also significantly affected by the natural eco-environmental base in the spatial pattern. (4) In the simulation of different development scenarios, the land use conflict is the most serious under the economic priority development scenario, and the land use conflict is the smallest under the ecological priority development scenario. However, the sustainable development scenario takes into account the land demand for economic and ecological development. The intensity of land use conflict is in the middle range, but the total welfare of regional development is the largest, which is the best choice for future regional development path.