东北三省碳源/汇和碳盈亏时空分布与影响因素

碳循环是影响气候变化的关键环节。利用改进的CASA模型对东北三省2000-2020年间自然碳源\汇进行了估算;通过增加真实碳排放量对估算过程的约束,改进了夜间灯光数据和碳排放拟合方法,探究了区域碳源碳汇和碳盈亏的时空分布和影响因素。结果显示：（1）净生态系统生产力在时间上呈现波动上升趋势,空间上黑龙江省自然碳汇总量最高（164.61 Tg C/a）,约占东北三省的60%;（2）能源消费碳排放总量呈现先上升,再下降,近年趋于稳定的时间变化趋势,空间上以辽宁省年均碳排放量增速最快,增速约为6.95 Tg C/a;（3）2005年为东北三省整体从碳盈余转变为碳亏损的转折点,近年来亏损速率有所下降;（4）东北三省碳盈亏与自然因素呈正相关,与人口规模、地区生产总值、碳排放强度、产业结构呈现负相关关系。辽宁省能源消费总量的攀升使能源结构的下降未能扭转其碳亏损的局面,并使其碳盈亏与能源结构呈现正相关关系;黑龙江省和吉林省农业人口流失较快一定程度上导致了城市化水平与碳盈亏呈现正相关关系。（5）东北三省均应降低碳排放强度,黑龙江省和吉林省应调整能源结构,辽宁省应调整产业结构。研究结果可为东北三省"双碳目标"的实现提供理论依据。

Spatio-temporal distribution and influencing factors of carbon source/sink, carbon surplus and deficit in three northeast provinces

Carbon cycle is a key link affecting climate change. In this paper, the improved CASA model is used to estimate the natural carbon sources and sinks in Northeast China during 2000-2020. By adding the constraints of real carbon emissions in the estimation process, we improved the estimated methods of the energy consumption carbon emission. The spatial and temporal distribution and influencing factors of regional carbon sources, carbon sinks, and carbon sequestration were investigated. The results show that:(1) in terms of time, the net ecosystem productivity fluctuated and increased. In terms of space, Heilongjiang Province had the highest total natural carbon sink (164.61 Tg C/a), accounting for 60% of the Northeast China. (2) The total carbon emissions from energy consumption rose firstly, then declined, and tended to be stable in recent years. Liaoning Province had the fastest annual growth rate of carbon emissions, which was about 6.95 Tg C/a. (3) 2005 was the turning point for the three Northeast provinces from carbon surplus to carbon deficit, and the rate of carbon deficit decreased in recent years. (4) The carbon surplus and deficit of Northeast China showed positively correlated with natural factors, which presented negative correlation with the total population, gross regional product, carbon emission intensity, and industrial structure. The increase of total energy consumption in Liaoning Province made the decline of energy structure fail to reverse the situation of carbon deficit, and made the carbon deficit and energy structure to present a positive correlation. The rapid loss of agricultural population in Heilongjiang Province and Jilin Province resulted in a positive correlation between urbanization level and carbon deficit. (5) The Northeast China should all reduce carbon emission intensity, Heilongjiang and Jilin should adjust their energy structure, while Liaoning should adjust its industrial structure. The rapid loss of agricultural population in Heilongjiang Province and Jilin Province resulted in a positive correlation between urbanization level and carbon surplus and deficit. The research results can provide a theoretical basis for the realization of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in the three northeastern provinces.