辽宁太子河流域生态系统服务权衡/协同关系时空变化与情景预测

研究生态系统服务权衡与协同关系为制定合理的区域社会-生态系统管理方案提供依据，促进区域可持续发展。太子河是维护辽宁中部城市群生态安全和用水安全的重要保障，以重工业为主的产业布局使得该区生态安全受到威胁，严重影响社会经济的可持续发展。综合气象、土地利用等多源数据，借助InVEST模型，探究太子河流域固碳、土壤保持、生境质量的时空特征；采用Pearson相关分析法，探讨不同样点尺度、不同地类上权衡与协同关系的时空变化，并对2030年不同土地利用情景进行预测。结果表明：①三种生态系统服务在各尺度上（除100m尺度）均为协同关系，且样点尺度越大，相关系数越高。②在不同地类中，耕地、林地、草地三种地类生态系统服务功能类似，以土壤保持功能为主，碳储功能其次；生态系统服务的热点区分布在流域的东部，冷点区集中在流域西部。③不同预测情景下三种生态系统服务间仍为协同关系，在保护情景下生境质量最好、水域面积最多，生态系统服务能力最高；开发情景下建设用地面积增加最多，但生境质量最差。

Spatio-temporal variation and scenario prediction of ecosystem service tradeoffs/synergies in the Taizi River Basin, Liaoning Province

Studying ecosystem service tradeoffs and synergistic relationships can not only provide a basis for formulating reasonably regional social-ecological system management schemes but can also provide lessons for promoting sustainable regional development. Taizi River is an important guarantee for maintaining the ecological security and water security of the urban agglomeration in central Liaoning Province. For a long time, the industrial layout, which is dominated by heavy industry, has threatened the ecological security of the area and seriously affected the sustainable development of the social economy. In this paper, the spatio-temporal characteristics of carbon sequestration, soil conservation, and habitat quality in the Taizi River Basin were investigated by using the InVEST model based on multi-source data such as meteorology and land use. Pearson correlation analysis was used to explore the spatio-temporal changes of tradeoffs and synergistic relationships at different point scales and different land classes, at the same time, using the IDRISI to predict three different land use scenarios in 2030. The results showed that:(1) the three ecosystem services had a synergistic relationship at all scales (except the 100m scale), the ecosystem service of carbon storage and habitat quality have a consistently high positive correlation, with correlations greater than 0.9 in 2000 and 2010, indicating a significant positive correlation between the two. The larger the sample scale was, the higher the correlation coefficient was, so the two-by-two correlation between the three ecosystem services was highest at the 10km scale. (2) Among the different land use types, the ecosystem service functions of the three land use types of arable land, forest land, and grassland were relatively similar, with soil conservation as the main ecosystem service function among all three, followed by the ecosystem services of carbon storage. The hot spots of ecosystem services in Taizi River Basin were distributed in the eastern part of the basin, dominated by forest land, while the cold spots were concentrated in the western part of the basin, dominated by arable land and construction land. (3) There are synergistic relationships among the three ecosystem services under three different forecast scenarios in 2030. Under the conservation scenario, the ecosystem of habitat quality is the best(0.68), the water area has the largest expansion in 2030, and the ecosystem service capacity is the highest. The development scenario has the largest increase in construction land, a reduction of 871.4km² in arable land and 224.58km² in watershed area, but the worst habitat quality of 0.617.