气候速度影响下中国周边海域鲨鱼保护优先区识别

鲨鱼在气候变化和人类活动等因素的影响下面临着种群衰退的风险，开展鲨鱼保护优先区研究是鲨鱼保护行动的重要工作.将气候速度引入鲨鱼保护优先区的识别过程，旨在阐明中国周边海域鲨鱼现状保护成效和保护空缺，并预测气候速度影响下的鲨鱼保护优先区空间格局及其变化趋势.以集成物种分布模型模拟的146种鲨鱼栖息地作为保护对象，以2015年至2100年两种气候变化情景下的气候速度作为保护的机会成本，基于系统保护规划理论模拟现状和未来情景下的鲨鱼保护优先区选址方案.研究结果表明：（1）长江口以南至台湾海峡和北部湾近岸海域为鲨鱼多样性分布的主要区域，台湾海峡区域亦为珍稀濒危物种的重要分布区；（2）在两种气候情景下，南海中南部将面临较高的气候变化风险，而长江口以南至珠江口的近岸海域气候速度均相对较低，提示了这些区域或能成为气候变化影响下的生物避难所；（3）现有保护区仅保护了1.33%的海域和不到4%的鲨鱼物种，尚存在较大的保护空缺.当保护海域比例提升至10%时，可覆盖绝大多数鲨鱼物种.而当比例提升至30%时，珍稀濒危物种的栖息地将得到有效保护；（4）气候变化影响下保护优先区选址将发生不同程度的变化，尤其是在中国南海区域，如在保护规划时兼顾气候速度，可在满足相似保护目标的前提下减少保护优先区内25%以上的气候压力，以使其具有较强的应对气候变化潜力。

Setting conservation priorities for sharks in China's surrounding seas under the impact of climate velocity

Because shark populations are at risk of decline due to climate change and human activities, conducting shark conservation priority studies is an important part of shark conservation efforts. We integrate climate velocity into the identification of conservation priorities for sharks, aiming to elucidate the shark conservation effectiveness and gaps in conservation efforts within China''s surrounding waters. Furthermore, the study endeavors to predict the spatial distribution and changes of these conservation priorities for sharks under the influence of climate velocity. The shark habitats of 146 species simulated by the ensembled species distribution models were adopted as conservation targets. The opportunity costs of protection are associated with climate velocity under tow climate change scenarios from 2015 to 2100. Based on the principles of systematic conservation planning, this study simulate the current and future conservation priorities for sharks. The findings revealed that:(1) the hotspots of shark diversity could be found from the southern region of the Yangtze Estuary reaching to the Taiwan Strait, together with the coastal waters of the Beibu Gulf. Moreover, the Taiwan Strait was identified as an important area for the distribution of rare and endangered species. In comparison to endangered and vulnerable species, critically endangered species are less common and more concentrated in the South China Sea. (2) When the two climate scenarios are compared, it is discovered that the climate velocity under SSP585 is significantly higher than that under SSP126, the central and southern South China Sea would face a high climate change risk under both scenarios. However, the climate velocity in the coastal waters from the Yangtze Estuary to the Pearl River Estuary was relatively low, suggesting that the area could become a climate refuge. (3) Existing protected areas protected only 1.33% of the sea and less than 4% of shark species, indicating a significant protection gap. Most shark species could be protected if marine protection was increased to 10%. Furthermore, with a 30% protection rate, the habitat of rare and endangered species would be effectively protected. That is, if only the broad compatibility of species conservation is considered, low conservation ratios already have a good conservation effectiveness. However, when focusing on the conservation of rare and endangered species, a high conservation ratio is necessary. (4) The protection priorities would shift as a result of climate change, particularly in the South China Sea. If climate velocity is considered a cost in conservation planning, climate pressure in conservation priorities can be reduced by 25% while maintaining similar protection targets. In that case, the identified conservation priorities would have a high potential of climate change adaptation.