落叶松枯梢病在中国的适生性

落叶松枯梢病(Neofusicoccum laricinum)是威胁落叶松人工林的检疫性林木病害。明确当前该病在中国的潜在适生区及其在未来对气候变化的响应,揭示影响该病害发生流行的主导环境变量,对落叶松枯梢病的早期预警及防治具有重要意义。基于落叶松枯梢病分布数据和环境数据,利用ENMTools、R和刀切法(Jack knife test)筛选分布点数据和环境因子,通过MaxEnt、ArcGIS、SDMTools等技术预测当前和未来气候条件下落叶松枯梢病在中国的潜在适生区,划分病害适生等级并计算各适生等级面积占比,绘制质心转移轨迹。结果表明:(1)建立的落叶松枯梢病在中国的潜在适生区预测模型具有高精确性和可信度(不同年份和不同气候模式下的AUC值均大于0.9);(2)影响落叶松枯梢病分布的主要环境变量为年平均气温、最暖季度降水量、年降水量和最暖季度平均温度;(3)当前气候模式下落叶松枯梢病在中国的潜在适生区面积占中国国土总面积的18.02%,中高适生区集中分布在中国辽宁东南部、吉林东部、黑龙江大部分地区、内蒙古东北部;(4)在三种不同气候条件下(ssp126、ssp245、ssp585),未来落叶松枯梢病在中国的潜在适生区面积与现代气候条件相比均有所减少,其质心由东北向华北、西南地区转移。落叶松枯梢病一旦发生将会造成不可逆的生态灾难和经济损失,因此本研究对落叶松枯梢病在中国的潜在适生区进行预测和分析,研究结果对合理区划落叶松枯梢病潜在入侵风险地、加强重点地区的检疫监测、及时制定有效的防治手段,以及对于发生区的监测和防治与未发生区的早期预警和监管具有重要意义。

Prediction of potential suitable distribution of shoot blight of larch (Neofusicoccum laricinum) in China

Shoot blight of larch caused by Neofusicoccum laricinum (Sawada) Hattori & Nakash is a serious disease and exerts a significant impact on the production of larch plantation in China. It is of great significance to carry out the prediction of potentially suitable area and risk analysis of the disease, so as to take timely and effective control measures for the disease, and finally reduce the risk level and prevent the disease spreading. This study was conducted to investigate the environmental variables affecting the distribution of shoot blight of larch and the geographical distribution under current and future climate conditions. Based on 63 distribution points of shoot blight of larch and 10 environmental factors, the distribution of potentially suitable areas of shoot blight of larch in China in different spans of modern (1970-2000), the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s scenarios was predicted using a combination of the MaxEnt model, SDMTools and ArcGIS software. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value was used to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction model. The results showed that: (1) the average AUC values in different years and climates of the predicted result of MaxEnt model were more than 0.9, indicating that the MaxEnt model is accurate and suitable for predicting the potential distribution of shoot blight of larch in China. (2) The major environmental variables affecting the distribution shoot blight of larch in China included: annual mean temperature, precipitation of warmest quarter, mean temperature of warmest quarte, and annual precipitation. The cumulative contribution of the main environmental factors was 59.1%. (3) Under the near climatic model, the total suitable area of potential was approximately 1.728 million km², covering 18.02% of the total land area of China. The areas surrounding the southeastern Liaoning, eastern Jinlin, most of Heilongjiang and Northeastern the Inner Mongolia were moderately and highly suitable areas for shoot blight of larch. (4) The potentially suitable areas of shoot blight of larch under the three climatic scenarios (ssp126, ssp245, ssp585) of the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, 2090s will shrink to varying degrees. The prediction results showed that centroid movement track of the suitable area of shoot blight of larch would be within the Inner Mongolia, and there would be a trend of moving to Southwest and North China. The results showed that the shoot blight of larch had the risk of invasion and spread in China, which will bring irreversible ecological disaster. Therefore, it is essential to reasonably delineate the potentially dangerous invasion sites for the disease, strengthen relevant detection and quarantine in key areas, and develop the effective control measures in a timely manner to eliminate the possibility of invasion at source.