基于“潜力-弹性-稳定性”模型的温州市生态韧性时空变化及影响因素研究

城市生态韧性为城市应对长期发展积累的内在压力,以及外界不确定性风险的冲击提供了新思路,对城市的可持续发展具有重要意义。基于城市生态学视角,从生态韧性的抵御力、恢复力及适应力三个方面特性,构建基于"潜力-弹性-稳定性"的生态韧性评价模型,分析了1990-2020年温州市生态韧性时空变化特征,并运用时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR),探究了生态韧性影响因素的时空异质性。结果表明:(1)1990-2020年,温州城市生态韧性指数总体呈现先上升后下降的趋势,潜力、弹性、稳定性呈现出相似的变化趋势,研究后期稳定性的提升使生态韧性的下降得到短暂缓解。(2)温州市东部沿海地区生态韧性较差,西部与北部山地生态韧性较好;低韧性水平区呈现出区域中心韧性水平降低,并且向外围扩张的趋势。(3)温州市城市生态韧性影响因素之间存在显著的时空差异,空间上也存在波动方向与强度的差异,这种差异性集中分布于城市边缘县(区)。研究以期为温州市及沿海同等级城市,提升城市生态韧性、促进区域可持续发展决策提供参考。

The research of spatio-temporal characteristics and influence factors of Wenzhou ecological resilience based on the potential-elastic-stability model

Urban ecological resilience can provide a new way of thinking to cope with the internal pressure of the long-term development of the city accumulation and the outside world impact of the uncertain risk, which is of great significance to urban ecological security development. Based on urban ecology, from the ecological resilience against strength, resilience, and the characteristics of flexibility, a potential-elastic-stability ecological resilience evaluation model was constructed to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of ecological resilience in Wenzhou city from 1990 to 2020. Based on the statistical data, geographic spatial and temporal weighted regression (GTWR) model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the influencing factors of ecological resilience, and to provide suggestions for building good urban ecological resilience in Wenzhou. The results showed that: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the urban ecological resilience index of Wenzhou increased firstly and then decreased, and the three indexes of potential, elasticity and stability showed the same trend. The decrease in ecological resilience was temporarily alleviated by improvement of stability in the late study period. (2) The ecological resilience of developed coastal areas in the east of Wenzhou was poor, while that of mountainous areas in the west and north of Wenzhou was better. The low level of ecological resilience showed a decreasing trend of central resilience and expansion to the periphery. (3) There were significant spatial and temporal differences among the influencing factors of urban ecological resilience in Wenzhou, and there were also spatial differences in the direction and intensity of fluctuations. The differences were mainly concentrated in the urban fringe counties rather than the main urban areas. The study is expected to provide reference for Wenzhou city and coastal cities of the same grade to improve urban ecological resilience and promote regional sustainable development decision-making.