中国城市生态基础设施对碳排放量的影响

在碳达峰、碳中和的时代背景下，探究城市生态基础设施的碳减排效应对实现城市的可持续性发展、现代化发展具有重要的现实意义。选用中国2003-2019年中国214个地级市为样本，采用熵权法量化中国城市生态基础设施发展水平，构建空间计量模型研究城市生态基础设施发展对碳排放量的影响及其空间溢出效应。研究发现：（1）中国城市碳排放总量整体呈上升趋势，并且碳排放量较高的地区是人口密度较大的城市，以及传统工业城市。城市生态基础设施发展水平总体呈先下降，后上升的趋势，发展较好的城市分布在东部沿海地区，西北城市，中部省会与直辖市。（2）城市生态基础设施发展显著促进了本地城市和邻地城市的碳排放量，该结果通过稳健性检验。并且，城市生态基础设施的碳减排效应存在滞后性，城市生态基础设施在发展至12期时，具有显著的碳减排效应。（3）城市第二产业发展具有集聚效应，降低了邻地城市的碳排放量；城市对外开放程度越高，地区间贸易加速流动，促进了邻地城市的碳排放量。（4）与其他城市相比，西部地区城市、非省会城市和直辖市，以及资源型城市的生态基础设施发展显著促进了城市碳排放。（5）政策制定上，一方面应全力推进城市生态基础设施发展和第二产业转型，重视城市绿化覆盖、垃圾废水处理等设施建设。另一方面需特别关注西部地区城市、非直辖市和非省会城市、以及资源型城市，因地制宜，激发其生态基础设施建设动力，助推碳达峰、碳中和目标的实现。

Research on the impact of urban ecological infrastructure on carbon emissions in China

Under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, exploring the carbon emission reduction effect of urban ecological infrastructure is important for achieving sustainable development and modern development of cities. This article selected 214 prefecture level cities in China from 2003 to 2019 as samples. The entropy weight method was adopted to quantify the development level of urban ecological infrastructure development in China. A spatial econometric model was constructed to study the impact of urban ecological infrastructure development on carbon emissions and its spatial spillover effects. The research finds that:(1) By and large, the urban carbon emissions are on the rise, and the regions with high carbon emissions are cities with large population density, as well as the traditional industrial cities. The urban ecological infrastructure development level shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. High level cities are distributed in the eastern coastal areas, northwest cities, provincial capital cities in middle China, and municipalities directly under the central government. (2) The development of urban ecological infrastructure significantly promotes carbon emissions of local cities and neighboring cities, and this result passes the robustness test. Moreover, there is a lag in the carbon emission reduction effect of urban ecological infrastructure. Urban ecological infrastructure will have a significant carbon reduction effect after 12 years. (3) The development of urban secondary industry has an agglomeration effect, reducing the carbon emissions of neighboring cities. The higher the degree of opening to the outside world, the faster the flow of regional trade, which promotes the carbon emissions of neighboring cities. (4) Compared to other cities, the development of ecological infrastructure in the western cities, non-provincial capital cities, non-municipalities directly under the central government, and resource-based cities significantly promote urban carbon emissions. (5) In terms of policy development, on the one hand, efforts should be made to promote the development of urban ecological infrastructure and the transformation of the secondary industry, especially the construction of facilities such as urban greening facilities and garbage and wastewater treatment facilities. On the other hand, special attention should be paid to cities in the western region, non-provincial capital cities and non-municipalities directly under the central government, as well as resource-based cities. In order to stimulate these cities'' momentum of ecological infrastructure construction and promote the realization of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the development of urban ecological infrastructure should be handled in the light of concrete circumstances.